Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Wapack and Back Odds 2012

You want it, you got it Ryan....

The contendaa’s (must say with Boston accent) -

Josh Katzman – the top dog right now as far as ultra running goes up here in New England. Has a 15:35 100 mile time and fifth place finish at Rocky Raccoon this year. Also to his credit he won the Stone Cat Ale 50 miler last year in 6:29, second in the VT 50 in 6:21 and racked up 80 miles in 12 hours at the 24 Hour Around the Lake 12 Hour. He is flat out fast but can he run in the mountains???? 

Adam Wilcox – mentioned as a top runner in Hardrock 2012 lottery posted on Adam finished 10th at Pinhoti, 8th at Wasatch, 9th at Massanutten, and 17th at Rocky…all last year!!! He won both the TARC Spring and Fall Classic 50k’s and was also able to nab the 100 Mile Wilderness crown along the AT with fellow ultra runner Ryan Welts in 30 hours. Adam did hold the FKT for the Pemi Loop in NH for a brief period of time.

Ryan Welts – the 2010 winner of the Wapack 50-miler in 10:09, Virgil Crest 50 runner up in 2010 and more recently the 3rd place finisher at the Traprock 50k in 4:41. Ryan also holds the distinction for having the FKT for the Presidential Traverse and as mentioned above, the 100 Mile Wilderness speed record along the AT. 

Daniel Larson – was winner of the 2011 Wapack 50-miler in 10:18 and the 5th place finisher at the VT 100 in 17:57. Daniel has in impressive resume dating back to 2005 with wins the Across the Years 24 Hour in 2007 and also a win the Lake Waramaug 50k in 2006.

Justin Contois – was the 4th place finisher of the 50-miler in 2010 and first place finisher of the 43-miler last year at Wapack. Won the Mt. Agamenticus 50k and the Ghost Train Ultra 100 Miler last year. Won the TARC Spring Thaw 6 Hour this past March. 

Josh Rapp - competed down south at the Uwarrhie Mountain Run 40 and finished 4th this year in 6:54. He also has a 4:21 50k at the Salem Lakeshores Frosty 50k.

Now for the Odds....

2 to 1 - Josh Katzman - We will all see Josh at the start and then again after he hits the turn-around... but thats about it. Anyone smell a CR??? Josh goes under 10 hours easy.

3 to 1 Ryan Welts - holds the second fastest time on the course and he did it on a day where the skies really opened up back in 2010. Will be going for the CR as well, but can he keep up with Katzman???

4 to 1 Adam Wilcox - got a PR at the 50k distance a few weeks ago at the TARC Spring Classic and is running well. Training and doing well for Hardrock is the main goal of the year so Wapack could be just be a fast competitive training run. On a side note, Adam gets the nod for best ultrasignup pic.

5 to 1 Daniel Larson - the hunter. Daniel waited until the turn-around last year to make his move when he dusted Matt Davenport and myself. Don't be surprised if he starts slow and turns on the jets after the 50k mark.

6 to 1 Justin Contois - looking to place in the top 3 and figures the only way its going to happen is to be consistent all day, don't go out too hard (working on this one...), and hope that the battle up front produces some wreckage that I can gobble up.

7 to 1 Josh Rapp - don't know much about Josh besides his ultrasignup results. Could play a big factor though with his 6:54 40 mile time in the mountains.

Others that may have a stab at the podium include Eric Ahern (4:34 50k), Shad Hansen (two for two with Wapack 50 finishes) and Kristina Folcik (sleeper pick for top 5)


  1. I think you're sandbagging . . .

  2. Also, keep an eye on Pascal Marmier. He's going to surprise a bunch of folks . . .

    1. I think you just blew the surprise...

  3. Josh-I figured you knew him being from Lexington and all, and if you say he can run, I believe it. As far as the sandbagging goes, I fully expect to get my rear handed to me, just glad to be part of a competitive field that's only an hours drive from my house. See you Saturday.